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#1 Nov-02-12 11:31PM

Ernie
Administrator
From: Ashburn VA
Registered: Feb-03-06
Posts: 16641

Here we go again.....

*** ALERT **** NOR'EASTER THREAT FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC and NEW ENGLAND COAST NOV 6-7-8... GROWING

If you are in FB, go and "like" Wxrisk.com...he is a cranky dude but very accurate in his forecasting. His website is usually a day or 2 later than FB.


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#2 Nov-03-12 12:18AM

Ernie
Administrator
From: Ashburn VA
Registered: Feb-03-06
Posts: 16641

Re: Here we go again.....

From Dr. Jeff Masters Wunderblog today. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...?entrynum=2285

Storm-weary U.S. residents pounded by Superstorm Sandy may have a new storm to contend with next Wednesday: an early-season Nor'easter is expected to impact the mid-Atlantic and New England with strong winds and heavy rain. Our two top models, the European (ECMWF) and GFS (run by the National Weather Service), both predict that an area of low pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada. The storm is predicted to intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure of 992 mb by Wednesday afternoon, when it will be centered a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY. The European model, which did an exemplary job forecasting Hurricane Sandy, predicts a stronger storm that will stay just offshore and bring a 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York on Wednesday morning and afternoon. The GFS model and 06Z NOGAPS model runs from 06Z (2 am EDT) this morning have a weaker storm that is farther offshore, with the main impact of the Nor'easter occurring Wednesday evening in coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine. The Nor'easter will likely bring a swath of 2 - 4" of rain to the coast, and the potential for more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of the New England. The storm is still five days away, and five-day forecasts of the path and intensity of Nor'easters usually have large errors. Nevertheless, residents and relief workers in the region hit by Sandy should anticipate the possibility of the arrival on Wednesday of a moderate-strength Nor'easter with heavy rain, accompanied by high winds capable of driving a 1 - 2 foot storm surge with battering waves.


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#3 Nov-03-12 3:09PM

Osprey
Patagonian Toothfish
From: Forestville, MD
Registered: Nov-17-07
Posts: 1281
Website

Re: Here we go again.....

Gee thanks Ernie, whatever happened to "NO NEWS is GOOD NEWS"


20' Key West..16' C-Hawk...Hobie Pro Angler...Hobie Outback

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#4 Nov-03-12 5:17PM

Ernie
Administrator
From: Ashburn VA
Registered: Feb-03-06
Posts: 16641

Re: Here we go again.....

*** ALERT ***

Nor'easter NOV 6-7-8 looks "COLDER" on SATURDAY (11/3) morning data....

SNOW THREAT INCREASING FOR NW 33% of VA .. Northeastern WVA ... Western and Central MD central and Northeast PA -- Poconos.


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#5 Nov-04-12 8:48PM

Ernie
Administrator
From: Ashburn VA
Registered: Feb-03-06
Posts: 16641

Re: Here we go again.....

Update:

12z ECMWF HOLDS COURSE... for 11th run in a row. MAJOR NOREASTER off the MD NJ LONG ISLAND COAST NOV 7-8. Winds to 50 MPH on the coast of SE VA ...MD eastern Shore DEL NJ NYC Long Island CT shore RI shore... SE MA. 1-2.5" rain along the coast. Western half of NC SW VA...Western MD Western third of PA and NY may not stay 100% dry.


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#6 Nov-05-12 1:40PM

hookup
Patagonian Toothfish
Registered: Jan-31-12
Posts: 2863

Re: Here we go again.....

Pacemaker wrote:

Nor'easter NOV 6-7-8 looks "COLDER" on SATURDAY (11/3) morning data....
.

You going to let a little cold weather & snow affect Saturday's fishing?

LoL

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#7 Nov-05-12 2:22PM

Ernie
Administrator
From: Ashburn VA
Registered: Feb-03-06
Posts: 16641

Re: Here we go again.....

hookup wrote:

Pacemaker wrote:

Nor'easter NOV 6-7-8 looks "COLDER" on SATURDAY (11/3) morning data....
.

You going to let a little cold weather & snow affect Saturday's fishing?

LoL

Yes...I am a cold weather wimp! I have done it but I don't like it. I still have lots of Cuban blood. Give me 95 degrees any time!


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#8 Nov-05-12 4:15PM

bart2puck
Northern Snakehead
Registered: Jun-02-10
Posts: 316

Re: Here we go again.....

Pacemaker wrote:

hookup wrote:

Pacemaker wrote:

Nor'easter NOV 6-7-8 looks "COLDER" on SATURDAY (11/3) morning data....
.

You going to let a little cold weather & snow affect Saturday's fishing?

LoL

Yes...I am a cold weather wimp! I have done it but I don't like it. I still have lots of Cuban blood. Give me 95 degrees any time!

i was at a conference in boston a few weeks ago.  there were 2 folks there from puerto rico.  it was funny, because the sun was out and bright.  3 of us white folk went to the shade of a tree, the 2 puerto ricans went to the sun.  it was an interesting cultural difference to see.

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#9 Nov-05-12 4:19PM

Ernie
Administrator
From: Ashburn VA
Registered: Feb-03-06
Posts: 16641

Re: Here we go again.....

bart2puck wrote:

there were 2 folks there from puerto rico.  it was funny, because the sun was out and bright.  3 of us white folk went to the shade of a tree, the 2 puerto ricans went to the sun.  it was an interesting cultural difference to see.

But.....let it get hot and those two will get under the tree as well!


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#10 Nov-05-12 4:58PM

Osprey
Patagonian Toothfish
From: Forestville, MD
Registered: Nov-17-07
Posts: 1281
Website

Re: Here we go again.....

Pacemaker wrote:

bart2puck wrote:

there were 2 folks there from puerto rico.  it was funny, because the sun was out and bright.  3 of us white folk went to the shade of a tree, the 2 puerto ricans went to the sun.  it was an interesting cultural difference to see.

But.....let it get hot and those two will get under the tree as well!

....and if it was snowing?


20' Key West..16' C-Hawk...Hobie Pro Angler...Hobie Outback

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#11 Nov-05-12 5:16PM

hookup
Patagonian Toothfish
Registered: Jan-31-12
Posts: 2863

Re: Here we go again.....

Pacemaker wrote:

Give me 95 degrees any time!

Give me 50-55dF water temps in the Spring & Fall & I'm a happy camper.

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#12 Nov-05-12 5:59PM

Ernie
Administrator
From: Ashburn VA
Registered: Feb-03-06
Posts: 16641

Re: Here we go again.....

Osprey wrote:

....and if it was snowing?

We run!!!


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#13 Nov-06-12 12:26PM

Ernie
Administrator
From: Ashburn VA
Registered: Feb-03-06
Posts: 16641

Re: Here we go again.....

From WxRisk:

*** ALERT SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHIFTING EAST.... taking the Noreaster WAAAAAAAAAAY out to sea

If this is correct and I think it is .... because of the PATTERN... then this event will be MISS for all of MD except right along the coast.... all of VA ... most of Delaware and all of NJ... with NJ coast seeing LESS rain and LESS winds and Nothing eastern PA***


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#14 Nov-07-12 1:06AM

Ernie
Administrator
From: Ashburn VA
Registered: Feb-03-06
Posts: 16641

Re: Here we go again.....

Bullet dodged!

http://i275.photobucket.com/albums/jj320/Kiko13PB/New%20Kiko/11-6-12.jpg


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