Pacemaker Fishing Forum

Latest model....



Maybe 2-3" for Loudoun?

Nooooooooooooooooo!

Here is the latest from wxrisk:

"As I attempt to recover from this catastrophic forecast failure on my part.... Here are some SURFACE features we can take a look at here on this weather map to see what's going on. In the green areas I have highlighted some important service observations. Take a look at the Petersburg in South Central Virginia ( Green underline south of RIC). The temperature there is 43° the dew point ...is 25. That means when the precipitation starts the temperatures will saturate somewhere near 32°which would support snow. In Farmville the temperatures 41° the dew point of 19°with the north wind. That means that when the precipitation starts it will saturate probably below 32° which would allow the snow to stick.

If you look south along the Virginia North Carolina border notice a lot of temperatures with readings of 37°with a Dew point of 37° or 34°. Those areas have already saturated and are not going to drop and the further into a colder air gets down from the north. If you look at far southwest region Ya near the Tennessee border you will see temperatures there are 43° and 40°... But the DEW points are near 40°so those temperatures are going to stay up there for while and it will just be plain rain. Notice how over that the WINDS out of the EAST there so the cold air from the north is not getting into that part of far southwestern Virginia.

If you look and Eastern Kentucky Lexington in the green circle has a temperature 35° with a DEW point of 28... So if they get any precipitation there they should support snow.

I will have More to post in a minute.... But suffice to say that the even though the 6z and 12z Models have brought back significant precipitation into the southern half of Virginia and especially the southern third of Virginia... I really don't believe it. I am very skeptical of the idea of snow accumulating grated and 2 inches any portion of Central Virginia including the Richmond metro area"



Most of the time, these guys are right on the money.....even as far as 7-10 days out.